Marvell Stock Rallies as Investor Day Targets Smash Wall Street Estimates

Less than a year ago, Marvell expected about $13 billion in revenue for fiscal 2028. Since then, the company has raised that goal five times. On Tuesday, Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) stock rallied nearly 4% after its investor day targets came in far above Wall Street estimates. The company now expects about $20 billion in fiscal 2028 revenue, against an analyst consensus of $18.2 billion. For the first time, it also set a target for fiscal 2031: $70 billion to $90 billion. For perspective, Marvell booked $8.2 billion in revenue last fiscal year. The Target That Kept Moving The fiscal 2028 goal has climbed in nearly every update since late 2025. Each step came with a raise to the near-term outlook as well. DateFiscal 2028 Revenue GoalDecember 2025~$13 billionMarch 2026~$15 billionMay 2026~$16.5 billionAugust 2026~$18 billionOct. 6, 2026 (Investor Day)~$20 billionSource: Marvell earnings releases and investor day In other words, the goal has risen about 54% in 10 months. Going into Tuesday, analysts expected $18.2 billion, roughly in line with the August guidance. Meanwhile, fiscal 2027 revenue is still expected around $12 billion. The new goal therefore implies about 67% growth next year. The guidance also lifted other companies tied to data-center connectivity. Astera Labs Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB) and Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:CRDO) rallied 8% and 6%, respectively. Read Also: Wall Street’s Favorite AI Trade Is Up 89% This Year: Its Best Season Starts Today What The Marvell Investor Day Targets Imply The fiscal 2031 range is where the gap with Wall Street becomes widest. Ahead of the event, Piper Sandler had modeled about $45 billion in fiscal 2031 revenue. Even the bottom of Marvell’s new range sits more than 50% above that estimate. To hit $70 billion, revenue would need to grow about 54% a year for five straight years. The top of the range implies roughly 61% a year. By comparison, revenue grew 42% in fiscal 2026. In addition, CEO Matt Murphy said Marvell’s AI addressable market could reach $400 billion by 2030. Why AI Data Centers Keep Pulling The Numbers Higher Marvell sells two things AI data centers need. The first is custom chips. Large cloud companies such as Google and Amazon design their own AI processors to cut costs and rely less on Nvidia. Marvell helps them design and build those chips. The second is connectivity. AI processors constantly exchange data. Marvell makes the optical and networking chips that carry that data across a data center. The two businesses reinforce each other, step by step. More AI processors create more data traffic. More data traffic needs more optical links. Consequently, more optical links mean more Marvell chips. Google is a large part of the longer-term picture. In late July, Marvell expanded a commercial agreement with Google covering custom processors and related chips. On the August earnings call, Murphy said the main revenue impact would arrive in fiscal 2029 and beyond. On Sept. 30, Bank of America’s semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya included Marvell Technologies among the top five chip stock picks, alongside Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) and Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:LRCX). MRVL Stock Price Activity: Marvell Technology shares are trading higher by 3.99% at $282.08 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 217.2%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 16.2% gain. Read Also: Top 5 Semiconductor Stocks to Own Into Year End: Bank of America