Wall Street Expects Micron to Earn $31 A Share This Quarter: That’s 10x From Last Year

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is heading into the largest year-over-year profit increase of any major U.S. company this earnings season. The stock trades at roughly six times what Wall Street expects the company to earn over the next 12 months. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Sept. 30, after the close. Analyst consensus sits at $31.16 per share, against $3.03 in the same quarter a year ago. That is a 10x increase. Revenue is expected near $50.4 billion, versus $11.32 billion a year earlier. Micron guided to $50 billion in revenue, plus or minus $1 billion, and adjusted earnings of $31.00 per share, plus or minus $1.00, when it reported in June. DRAM Prices Continue To Rise Micron makes two kinds of memory chips: DRAM, the working memory a computer uses while it is running, and NAND, the storage that holds data when the power is off. AI servers need far more DRAM per machine than ordinary servers. They also need a specialized version called high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, which stacks DRAM chips to move data faster to the processor. Memory supply could not expand fast enough. Prices went up instead. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 90% to 95% quarter over quarter in the first calendar quarter of 2026 and another 58% to 63% in the second, according to TrendForce. FISCAL 2026REVENUEADJUSTED EPSADJUSTED GROSS MARGINSecond quarter$23.86B$12.2074.9%Third quarter$41.46B$25.1184.9%Fourth quarter (guidance)$50.0B ±$1.0B$31.00 ±$1.00~86%Source: Micron Technology quarterly results and company guidance Read Also: EXCLUSIVE: AI Memory Shortage Could Last Until 2029, Yorkville CEO Says … But The Rate of Increase Is Slowing This is the part the eight-times multiple is about. TrendForce expects DRAM contract price increases to moderate to 13% to 18% quarter over quarter in the third calendar quarter of 2026, which covers most of Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter. Consumer buyers in PCs and smartphones have reached the limit of what they will pay. Micron’s own guidance carries the same signal. Revenue is guided to grow 21% sequentially, after growing 74% the quarter before. Earnings are guided to grow 23% sequentially, after growing 106%. Memory has always been cyclical. Prices rise, every producer expands capacity, supply catches up, and prices fall faster than they rose. Micron lost money as recently as fiscal 2023. At about $975 per share, a market value near $1.1 trillion, and a run rate of $31 per quarter, the stock is priced at roughly 7.9 times annualized current earnings. That is the market saying it does not expect this level of profit to persist. What Is Different This Time Micron has signed 16 strategic customer agreements, multi-year contracts in which some pricing is fixed or set within a floor and a ceiling. Remaining performance obligations under those agreements stood at approximately $100 billion as of the third quarter. That is an attempt to convert a price spike into contracted revenue. What Wall Street Analysts Expect Micron carries a consensus Buy rating from 27 analysts tracked by Benzinga Analyst Ratings, with 26 Buy ratings and one Hold. The average price target is $1,303, implying 33.4% upside from current levels. Targets set over the past three months run from $1,100 to $2,000. The direction of travel has changed. Nearly every firm raised its target in the days after the June 25 results. Since late July, the moves have gone both ways. DateFirmPrice TargetActionRatingAug 25, 2026Mizuho$1,375 → $1,300PT CutOutperformAug 14, 2026New Street Research$1,250UpgradeNeutral → BuyAug 7, 2026Citigroup$1,400 → $1,150PT CutBuyJul 14, 2026KeyBanc$1,600 → $1,750PT RaiseOverweightJun 29, 2026Cantor Fitzgerald$1,500 → $2,000PT RaiseOverweightJun 25, 2026Barclays$1,175 → $2,000PT RaiseOverweightSource: Benzinga Analyst Ratings The lowest target among recent actions belongs to Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider, who raised his target to $1,100 on June 25 while keeping a Neutral rating. The highest, at $2,000, is shared by Cantor Fitzgerald, Barclays, DA Davidson and Susquehanna. Options pricing implies a move of roughly 11% in either direction after the report. Micron shares traded at $974.33 on Thursday, up 5.16%. The stock is up about 240% in 2026. Image: Shutterstock