Micron's Record Quarter Points to Tighter Memory Supply Through 2028: Analysts Respond

Shares of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) slipped 1.9% in early trading on Thursday, even after the company reported record fiscal fourth-quarter results and guided well above expectations. • Micron stock is moving today. What’s going on? Here are some key analyst takeaways: Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy reiterated a Buy rating, while raising the price target from $1,500 to $1,900. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a Buy rating, while raising the price target from $2,000 to $2,100. J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $1,540. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $2,000. Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $1,650. Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a Buy rating and price target of $1,550. RBC Capital Markets analyst Srini Pajjuri reiterated an Outperform rating and price target of $1,500. Check out other analyst stock ratings. Micron Analyst Commentary Rosenblatt: “We were surprised by management’s outlook for a deceleration of DRAM bit growth Y/Y,” Cassidy said in a note. Industry growth in DRAM, the main memory used in servers, PCs and phones, should slow to the low-20% range in 2027 and 2028 from the mid-20% range in 2026, as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is harder to make. Faster cleanroom construction lifts fiscal 2027 capital spending above $50 billion, versus Rosenblatt’s prior $45 billion forecast. Even so, Cassidy expects free cash flow above $100 billion. His target is 10 times his fiscal 2028 earnings estimate of $190 per share. D.A. Davidson: Management signaled that memory markets could be even tighter in 2028 than today, Luria said, “addressing a key investor concern that current fundamentals represent a cyclical peak.” Boise, Idaho-based Micron now has 26 strategic customer agreements (SCAs), up 10 from a quarter ago. Even at floor prices, gross margins should stay above the prior cycle peak of 61%, the analyst noted. His target is 13 times calendar 2027 earnings. J.P. Morgan: More than 75% of fiscal 2027 output is already committed across customers, which Sur called “an unprecedented level of forward visibility.” New SCAs are being priced at today’s elevated market levels, which in his view sets a higher and more durable margin floor. Sur estimates about $108 billion in free cash flow from the second through fourth quarters of fiscal 2027. He expects buybacks at scale right after Dec. 9, with management already signaling a request for a larger repurchase authorization. Cantor Fitzgerald: Muse said he could not recall a management team ever guiding for revenue and gross margin to grow every quarter for a full year. Cantor models over $333 billion in free cash flow over the next eight quarters, with aggressive buybacks starting Dec. 9, when CHIPS Act limits end. At about 5.6 times Muse’s calendar 2027 earnings estimate of $188 per share, Micron is “simply too cheap to ignore,” he wrote. Needham: “Execution on HBM is continuing as gross margins are approaching DRAM margin levels,” Bolton said. The vast majority of calendar 2027 HBM supply is already contracted at significantly higher prices. Needham estimates quarterly HBM revenue at about $6.0 billion, up from $5.2 billion. Customer commitments under the SCAs rose to $32 billion, mostly cash deposits. Bank of America Securities: Arya raised his fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 23% and 36%, to $172 and $198 per share. As memory claims a bigger share of AI spending, “we expect memory to increasingly capture more value in 2027 and beyond,” he wrote. He sees upside to Wall Street’s $30 billion to $35 billion fiscal 2027 buyback estimate, with repurchases reaching $60 billion to $100 billion a year by fiscal 2028 and 2029. The risks he flagged are an unclear near-term buyback level, customers designing in less HBM and competition from China’s CXMT. RBC Capital Markets: Results and guidance came in slightly ahead of expectations, Pajjuri said, as he lifted his fiscal 2027 earnings estimate to $162.91 from $145.78. At about 6.5 times that figure, valuation is “barely giving credit to floor pricing agreements,” he wrote. SCAs remain untested in a downturn, but should offer meaningful protection even if some customers fall short. Price Action Micron shares had fallen 1.92% to $1,044.71 at the time of publication on Thursday. Read Also: Top 5 Semiconductor Stocks to Own Into Year End: Bank of America Image: Shutterstock