Will Oil Hit $130 By April End Amid Iran War? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two weeks and send the country into the "stone ages" during his televised address. Trump Celebrates Wins Trump, during his address marking one month since launching “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, said that U.S. forces have achieved “swift, decisive” victories. The President said that if no agreement is reached with Iran, the U.S. would launch strikes on the Islamic Republic's power infrastructure, targeting its electric generating plants. “We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all. Because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding, but we could hit and it would be gone,” Trump said. Newsom Calls Out Trump Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) on Wednesday criticized Trump over the Iran war, saying that it has greatly impacted everyday life in the U.S. "Gas, food, and airfare prices are soaring," Newsom said in a post on X. Oil Prices Soar Oil prices continued to climb amid the Iran war as the Islamic Republic has restricted the Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping. Crude oil prices surged over 45% in March, with WTI crude futures settling above $100 for the first time since July 2022. Crude Oil was trading at $104.89 early Thursday, up by nearly 5%, hours after Trump revealed that the U.S. will continue to strike Iran. Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?" Over $2.5 million has been bet on the contract so far. Amid Trump's threats, bettors have placed an 81% probability on crude oil hitting $110, up by 31%. Some bettors expect things to get worse, assigning a 47% probability to the price rising to $120 and a 31% probability to it reaching $130. $120 Or Ceasefire? The prediction market is also betting on whether oil will hit $120 or the U.S. and Iran will reach a ceasefire before this happens. Bettors have assigned a 30% probability to a ceasefire occurring before oil hits $120, down from 18%. Iran Invasion Odds Surge The odds of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran by the end of April surged to 70% as per the prediction market, up from 57% just a week ago. Meanwhile, expectations for peace have declined. Bettors priced in a 32% odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of April, down from 40% last week. Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Funtap on Shutterstock.com