Top Analyst Says SpaceX, Super Micro's Blowout Results Delivered the Catalyst for Next AI Stock Rally: ‘Odds Based on History Are High’

Tech analyst and Niles Investment Management founder Dan Niles stated that revenue beats from Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) can act as the catalyst for a rebound in artificial intelligence stocks. The ‘Trigger’ for a Rally Niles noted that despite recent negative news regarding the sector, his “conviction of a near-term AI rally continues to grow.” He acknowledged considerations such as funding issues for neo-clouds, slowing revenue growth at OpenAI and Anthropic, and bipartisan pushback against data centers. However, Niles stated, “Maybe the SpaceX earnings and Super Micro positive pre-announcement today are the trigger to start the next AI-related rally regardless of whether we have seen THE TOP or not.” He indicated that the AI infrastructure trade appears oversold based on recent metrics. Niles added, “The bottom line is even if we have seen THE TOP, the odds based on history are high for at least a short-term rally.” Niles said a good bearish investor stays open to the idea that they might be early, wrong, or about to experience a bear market rally. Post all the negative AI related news recently, $SPCX revs beat by 14% w/ AI beating by 19%. Q4 capex guide almost 90% above consensus while Q1 revs guided 57% above. Also $SMCI +pre w/ revs 27% above consensus. My conviction of a near-term AI rally continues to grow.As I…— Dan Niles (@DanielTNiles) October 21, 2026 Read Also: Meta Q3 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Eyes Muse AI Monetization As Mark Zuckerberg's AI Bet Faces Its Next Test SpaceX and Super Micro Earnings Beats SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, beating analyst estimates of $12.74 billion. Niles stated that SpaceX’s overall revenues beat consensus by 14%, with AI revenues beating by 19%. SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen stated the company anticipates fourth-quarter capital expenditures in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion, and first-quarter 2027 total company revenues between $33 billion and $37 billion. Niles noted that the fourth-quarter capex guide was almost 90% above consensus, while the first-quarter revenue guide was 57% above consensus. Super Micro Computer raised its preliminary first-quarter revenue outlook to a range of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, which the company attributed to increased demand for AI platforms. This represents an increase from prior guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion. Niles stated that this Super Micro revenue outlook was 27% above consensus. How Have These Stocks Performed? While SPCX shares debuted on U.S. bourses in June 2026, the stock was 10.39% higher in premarket trading on Wednesday. Meanwhile, SMCI was 12.41% higher in premarket. Stocks1-Month6-MonthsYTD1-YearSMCI-16.94%12.70%10.93%-41.01%SPCX-3.22%-1.47% (Since Listing In June ’26)–– Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SMCI maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a good quality score. Read Also: PLTR Stock’s Biggest Risk Isn’t Slowing Growth, but Its Price, Analyst Warns — Valuation Already Bakes In ‘Years of Exceptional Execution’ Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock