S&P 500 Nears Record High But Breadth Flashes Rare 1929, 1999 Signal — Analyst Says ‘We’ve Never in Almost 100 Years Seen Breadth This Bad’

The S&P 500 index advanced to within 1% of its record high on Monday while its constituents simultaneously registered more 52-week lows than highs, triggering a market signal observed only twice in the past century. Historical Market Breadth Signal On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to close at 7,764.70. This places the index 0.67% below its 52-week high of 7,816.70. Despite the top-level index gains, internal market participation deteriorated. According to Jason Goepfert, founder of SentimenTrader, there are only two dates in history when the S&P 500 rallied at least 1% to within 1% of a new high while more of its component stocks fell to new lows than highs: July 23, 1929, and Dec. 21, 1999. “We’ve never in almost 100 years seen breadth this bad,” Goepfert posted on social media platform X. “The S&P $SPY is knocking on new highs but there are (many) more stocks at lows than highs.” Look, I know…perma-bear blah blah blah.But this is crazy stuff.There are 2 days in history like today, when the S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 1% to within 1% of a new high, and more of its stocks fell to new lows than highs.• Jul 23, 1929• Dec 21, 1999 https://t.co/yBvtgtPJh9 pic.twitter.com/vMcZ9FasMJ— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) September 21, 2026 Goepfert noted that the percentage of stocks in long-term uptrends is plunging. Factoring in historical market contexts, he stated that “out of 83 dates with similar or better participation, the S&P rallied over the next year only 16% of the time.” Consequently, his firm’s price projection is now negative for the first time since they began publishing the data six months ago. Even broadening the parameters so we can get more signals doesn't improve the outlook much.Out of 83 dates with similar or better participation, the S&P rallied over the next year only 16% of the time. pic.twitter.com/gUolrA6cdK— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) September 20, 2026 Read Also: Diesel Hits Record $6.51 a Gallon as Fuel Crisis Deepens: Commodity Strategist Warns ‘No Handshake Can Refill’ the Market Under the Surface of the Rally During Monday’s session, 30 stocks within the S&P 500 hit new 52-week lows, while only seven reached fresh highs. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told CNBC that the divergence was a result of current sector leadership. "The leadership’s battling against weaker performance in the near term, and what’s selling off has been selling off, so the creation of new lows has an easier glide path than the creation of new highs with today’s leadership," Hogan said. Hogan indicated that the market could experience similar sporadic trading days moving forward. He sees no new highs in this market if the war persists, energy prices remain stubbornly high, and if the Fed continues to hike rates. How Has the Index Performed? The S&P 500 index has advanced 13.43% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 16.69%, and the Dow Jones gained 8.29% YTD. On Monday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY rose 1.55% to $773.50, while QQQ rose 2.88% to $741.47. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.76% higher at $519.78. In premarket on Tuesday, SPY was up 0.62%, QQQ advanced 0.94%, and DIA gained 0.61%. Read Also: S&P 500 Could Deliver Another 6% by Year-End as JPMorgan Calls Bears an ‘Extinct Species’ — Polymarket Bettors Price 35% Odds Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock