Gene Munster Says Upcoming Tesla Deliveries Will Be 'First Good Read,' As Ford, GM Scale Back EV Ambitions— Here's Why

On Friday, Deepwater Asset Management's managing partner Gene Munster said that Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) upcoming delivery report could reveal a deeper shift in the EV market as legacy automakers pull back. Tesla Deliveries Seen As Key Demand Test Post Incentives While sharing Pressure Points on social media, Munster said Tesla's first-quarter delivery report, expected in early April, will offer a clearer picture of demand after the expiration of U.S. EV tax credits. Those incentives previously supported roughly 30% of Tesla's sales. "This is going to be our first good read … of what the underlying demand looks like post the sunsetting of those U.S. EV tax credits," he said. Wall Street expects about 466,000 deliveries, implying roughly 8% growth, though Munster noted estimates range from low single-digit gains to around 11%. Even modest growth, he said, would be a positive signal after volatile 2025 delivery trends. Big Auto Retreat Creates Opening For Tesla Munster argued the bigger story lies beyond the quarterly numbers. Automakers, including Ford Motors (NYSE:F), General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), Toyota Motors (NYSE:TM), Honda Motors Co. (NYSE:HMC) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) have scaled back EV investments in recent years, shifting focus toward hybrids or gas-powered vehicles. He added that reduced spending has left competitors stuck in a cycle of weak EV profitability and slower progress. Limited US Competition Strengthens Tesla's Position Munster highlighted the absence of BYD (OTC:BYDDY)(OTC:BYDDF) in the U.S. market as a key advantage for Tesla. "Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the U.S., where we don't have BYD," he said. Long-Term Growth And Product Strategy In Focus Munster expects Tesla to regain market share if deliveries grow, supported by its focus on high-volume models and continued investment in autonomy. He also pointed to comments from Elon Musk hinting at a future family-oriented vehicle, saying, "Something way cooler than a minivan is coming." Beyond the headline of next week's $TSLA deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the US where we don't have BYD. pic.twitter.com/CBuYLEN6Hf— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) March 27, 2026 Tesla Q1 Deliveries Seen At 365K As Model 3/Y Drive Growth On Thursday, Tesla said analyst estimates point to 365,645 deliveries for the quarter, including 351,179 units from the Model 3 and Model Y. Analysts also project the company will deliver more than 1,689,691 vehicles this year and exceed 3,032,000 units by 2030. The projected 365,645 deliveries mark a decline of more than 12.5% from the 418,227 units Tesla reported in the fourth quarter, but reflect an 8% year-over-year increase compared with the 336,681 units delivered in the first quarter. Price Action: Tesla shares closed at $361.83 on Friday, down 2.76% and slipped a further 0.37% to $360.50 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro. Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings show the stock is trending lower in the short and medium term, while maintaining an upward trajectory over the long term, with its Quality score in the 73rd percentile. Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Image via Shutterstock