Middle East Oil Flows Surge Above Pre-Conflict Levels Even as Tanker Attacks Escalate: What’s Happening in the Strait of Hormuz

The movement of oil out of the Middle East is reportedly above pre-conflict levels, but so have attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Tehran. Shipping Data Shows Surge in Oil Movement According to a report by Reuters on Monday, which cited provisional estimates from the ship tracker Kpler, crude exports on September 24, as well as September 27 through September 29, showed that about 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels of oil were moving per day. Read Also: Canada's Oil Pivot Away From Trump Could Cost US Refineries — 'Entire Interior US Should be Alarmed,' Warns Top Oil Analyst By comparison, exports averaged roughly 18 million bpd from March 2025 through February before fighting began, the data showed. Kpler’s seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at about 18.5 million bpd on Oct. 1, the report said. The calculation includes volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, plus shipments from export terminals and ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman. Notably, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said last week that Iran had loaded “zero” barrels of oil due to U.S. economic restrictions. Broader seaborne volumes also remained elevated, according to Reuters, with crude, refined products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids averaging about 22.4 million bpd in the seven days ending Sept. 30 based on Kpler figures. The data does not capture ships that may have crossed with AIS tracking switched off. Attacks on Ships According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, multiple incidents have occurred since September 30 in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as in surrounding waters. Read Also: Trump Offers 40M Barrels From US Oil Reserve — But Buyers Aren’t Biting: Global Refining Capacity Is The Problem, Says Top Oil Analyst Most recently, UKMTO reported on Monday that multiple explosions were sighted in close proximity, about 60 nautical miles south of Al Mukha, Yemen, or roughly 69 miles, in addition to a tanker being struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 4. The attacks come as the Iranian Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee pushed back against President Donald Trump‘s claims that the country was close to surrendering to the U.S. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also said that heavy blows suffered by the U.S. at the hands of Tehran will eventually force it out of the Middle East. Oil Movement At the time of writing this article, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contracts expiring in November 2026 slipped 1.32% to $89.91. Brent futures contracts ending in November were also down 0.79% to $101.44 at press time. During pre-market trading on Monday, United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) slipped 1.63% to $145. The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:UCO) was also down, slipping 0.97% to $53.89 during pre-market trading. The national average gas price in the U.S. continued to fall, with data collected by the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Monday showing that the national average was $4.3653/gallon, while the national average price of diesel remained above $6/gallon at $6.3207. Read Also: Iran Warns of ‘Painful’ Retaliation As Trump Prepares to Send 10,000 More Troops to the Middle East — Senator Chris Van Hollen Urges Congress to 'Cut Off Funding' Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock